Weak NFP could push gold to new record high

• Gold nears all-time high on dovish signals
   
• US jobs data could prompt aggressive Fed pivot
   
• Markets expect 25-bps cuts at 3 FOMC meetings
   
• Strong jobs report may reduce gold's recent gains
   
• Geopolitical tensions support gold's bullish trend

Chair Powell's dovish signals this week have propelled gold close to its all-time high.
 

Gold could hit a new record if today’s US jobs report indicates a weakening labor market, potentially prompting a more aggressive Fed policy pivot.

Currently, markets anticipate a 25-bps cut at each of the remaining three FOMC meetings in 2024.
 

However, if today’s NFP report shows a robust US job market, gold may relinquish some of its recent gains.

Overall, heightened geopolitical tensions and ongoing expectations for Fed rate cuts have fostered favorable conditions for gold bulls.

On the technical prospective ...

XAUUSD is currently trading above all 3 major simple moving averages (21-, 50- and 100-period SMAs), underscoring the potential for a strong bullish trend in both the medium and long term.

To the upside, the $2483.74 all-time high is a key target for the gold bulls, while on the downside, the $2431.94 level followed by the 21-period SMA could provide support if the gold bears attempt to regain the initiative.

The relative strength index (RSI) remains in the neutral zone and is approaching the upper boundary (>70 – overbought; <30 – oversold), suggesting there might be room for potential upside before a possible technical correction.